Concetta discusses Trump’s proposed $88 billion annual immigration plan, which targets millions of undocumented immigrants, posing economic risks and threatening the rule of law, exclusively for Different Truths.
Trump’s proposed immigration plan outlines a large-scale effort to detain and deport millions of undocumented immigrants in the United States. This operation involves using military and law enforcement resources to detain individuals, holding them in detention centres while reviewing their cases, and then transporting them to their home countries or other willing destinations. While the overall framework of the plan is known, several significant questions remain unanswered.
Key Questions Surrounding the Plan
1. Who Will Be Targeted? Initially, the focus will be on undocumented immigrants with criminal records or prior deportation orders, a group the government can identify due to previous interactions with law enforcement. However, the scope may expand to include migrants without criminal records and those with Temporary Protected Status (TPS), 1 who may be harder to locate, especially in sanctuary jurisdictions that resist cooperating with federal deportation efforts.
2. How Will the Courts Respond? Undocumented immigrants are entitled to due process, which typically requires their cases to go through an already overwhelmed immigration court system. Trump’s team may attempt to bypass these processes using laws like the Alien Enemies Act of 17982, which is expected to trigger legal challenges. However, Trump could benefit from a more conservative judiciary, including the Supreme Court, which has previously affirmed broad presidential powers over immigration.
3. Where will the Migrants be Detained? The current system lacks the capacity to accommodate tens of thousands, let alone hundreds of thousands, of detainees. Implementing the plan would necessitate constructing, purchasing, or leasing additional detention facilities.
4. Will Other Nations Cooperate? Good question. Some countries, such as Venezuela, refuse to accept deportees from the U.S., while others may resist accommodating a surge of migrants, particularly those with criminal records. The administration might employ a mix of incentives and threats, including trade measures, to gain cooperation, but such efforts would require skilful diplomacy.
5. How Will Costs Be Covered? The plan is estimated to cost $88 billion annually—significantly more than the budgets for the National Institutes of Health or NASA. 3 While Trump has suggested redirecting military funds by declaring an emergency, additional funding would likely require Congressional approval, potentially necessitating bipartisan support in the Senate.
6. Will Migrants Leave Voluntarily? A climate of fear created by the threat of mass deportations could prompt some undocumented immigrants to leave the U.S. voluntarily, though it is unclear how many would do so.
Likely Outcomes
Even if logistical and legal obstacles prevent Trump from achieving his goal of millions of deportations annually, he would likely still exceed the deportation numbers seen under President Biden, who has deported fewer than 200,000 people per year. By comparison, the Bush and Obama administrations deported as many as 400,000 individuals annually at their peaks.
Broader Impacts
Proponents argue that this plan would strengthen the economy and uphold the rule of law, claiming that American workers would benefit from higher wages and better jobs.4 Critics, however, warn of potential chaos in Latino communities and severe labour shortages in industries like agriculture, construction, and food processing, which could drive up consumer prices. Additionally, they question whether the plan’s immense costs are justified, noting that the funds could instead build nearly three million homes.
Footnotes:
1. Temporary Protected Status, the program was signed into law by President George H.W. Bush to help people already in the United States who cannot return safely and immediately to their country because of a natural disaster or an armed conflict.
2. The Alien Enemies Act of 1798 is a federal law that grants the U.S. president authority to detain or deport non-citizens from a hostile nation during times of war or conflict. Enacted as part of the broader Alien and Sedition Acts, it remains in effect today, though its application has been rare and controversial. The act was initially designed to address concerns over foreign threats during the Quasi-War with France.
3. “Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.” American Immigration Council, October 2, 2024. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation0
4. “Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump’s 2025 Immigration Plans.” Savage, Charlie, Hagerman, Maggie, and Swan, Jonathan. “The New York Times,” November 11, 2023. Sweeping Raids, Giant Camps and Mass Deportations: Inside Trump’s 2025 Immigration Plans https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/11/us/politics/trump-2025-immigration-agenda.html?smid=nytcore-android-share
Sources:
German, Lopez, The New York Times “The Morning,” November27, 2024, https://messaging-custom-newsletters.nytimes.com/dynamic/render?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20241127&instance_id=140730&isViewInBrowser=true&nl=the-morning&paid_regi=1&productCode=NN®i_id=87034753&segment_id=184246&sendId=184246&uri=nyt://newsletter/e43a78c1-7370-56e1-9e1b-adc5aaa9f2ee&user_id=f80a9a6d008ba3cb6bf06818e516d178
“Mass Deportation: Devastating Costs to America, Its Budget and Economy.” American Immigration Council, October 2, 2024. https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/research/mass-deportation
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