The rise of China poses a challenge to the USA’s global dominance, as it has been a rival to the USSR since the Second Great War – an exclusive analysis by Baljeet, exclusively for Different Truths.

After the Second Great War in 1945, the world was divided into two major blocks. One was Communist-led by the USSR, and the other is Capitalist and Democratic-led by the USA. Soon after, fierce competition started between the two to excel and dominate each other politically, economically, and militarily. Both intended to ditch the opponent and become Superpowers. They thus began to expand their areas of influence and bring as many countries as possible into their respective folds.

The mad race for armaments between the two giants became the order of the day. Even deadly nuclear weapons began to pile up.  The possibility of another catastrophic war shortly could not be ruled out. But fortunately, good sense prevailed. Both the arch-rivals decided to sit down to resolve the issue amicably and save the world from further destruction. Consequently, Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) between the two started and lurking danger was averted notwithstanding, the intensity of pace between the two as to who was stronger continued unabatedly. It ended with the disintegration of the USSR in 1992 when fifteen of its Soviets (States) separated and became independent entities.

With the demise of the mighty Communist giant, i.e., the USSR, the USA became the world’s most powerful country, with no one to challenge it from any quarter. All have recognised its writ since then. The world leaders have been toeing its line of action. It has become the pillar of all vital world institutions like the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, World Health Organization, etc. As we know, all international trade transactions are done in American dollars. A slight variation in its currency causes shudders in the world economy. It is also the biggest exporter of weapons in the world. Thus, the proverb ‘might is right ‘and woe betide applies to the USA appropriately.

But with the turning of the millennium, a new horizon is emerging on the world’s geopolitical map. The superpower’s power and fame are at stake. It has been challenged by a rapidly rising South-Asian power, i.e., China. The latter has consistently tried to dethrone America from its power citadel. It has developed its economy and military power sufficiently to unsettle America from its enviable position. China’s trade with most countries has flourished for a long time. All the world markets are flooded with China’s cheap goods. Its much-touted project Belt and Road Initiative of 2013is meant to link Asia, Africa, and Europe. Its successful completion is bound to enrich the Chinese economy and give sleepless nights to America.

China is equally flexing its military muscles in the South China Sea to gain complete control. It has built many artificial islands and set up military bases, violating all international principles and laws. The South China Sea is a significant international shipping route. Most of the world trade is done through it. Therefore, its strategic importance matters to all nations.

The USA and other affected countries have forewarned China against its high-handedness. But China least bothers and remains adamant with its aggressive postures. The Chinese had already taken over Hong Kong by repudiating the agreement with Britain. It is now spreading its tentacles towards Taiwan, claiming it as its territory. Empty threats by the USA, in so doing, hardly affect China. China’s intrusion into the Indian territory of Eastern Ladakh and its claims over Arunachal Pradesh are other instances of its aggressiveness.  

The USA’s efforts to isolate China from the rest of the world to bring it to its knees are proving futile. Since the outbreak of the Ukraine War, the USA has been exhorting its allies and other world leaders to punish China for aligning with aggressive Russia.  But China, despite all its condemnation, has developed proximity with Russia.  The statesmen of both countries have proclaimed, ‘they are more than allies.’ China’s Belt and Road Initiative has also contributed to cultivating good relations with many countries. China is also on the way to improving its relations with the Western world.

Recently, Emmanuel Macron, the French President, visited China, against the goodwill of the USA, to discuss bilateral ties. China is also trying to carve out its space in West Asia. It has brokered peace between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The two countries earlier were at daggers drawn with each other. In fact, China occupies all the spaces the USA is vacating. The latter had abruptly left Syrians, Iraqis, and Afghans to their fates after supporting them for a long time against their tyrannical regimes. This is most deplorable on the part of America. This sudden change in American foreign policy has cost it its credibility. Even boycotting China has not gone well with most of the NATO members and other allies of America. Because import-export trade with China adds to their exchequers. Even the USA cannot ignore China, as its trade would be at stake in that case. Thus, America is now rethinking to divert its policy from decoupling to de-risking with China.

It appears difficult for the USA to bring China to the ground from the prevailing state of affairs as the latter holds it firmly and cannot be dislodged so easily. But then, at the same time, it can also be argued that China still needs to be stronger to replace the USA as a superpower. But the Chinese retaliate against every adverse action of the USA to downgrade it. They very well know how to outmanoeuvre their adversary. China has tactfully hogged the limelight by seizing the opportunity of rivalry between America-led NATO and Russia over the Ukraine war. This war has triggered geopolitical changes rapidly. The rise of China in the geopolitical arena has dealt a significant blow to the prestige of the USA. Only time will tell whether power transfer occurs from the West to the East!

Picture design by Anumita Roy

Dr Baljeet Singh Virk

Baljeet Singh Virk is a retired Associate Professor of History, from the Government Mohindra College, Patiala, Punjab

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