Mamata had a meeting with the Congress leader Sonia Gandhi on March 28 and it appears that Sonia was emphatic on the leading role of the Congress in this proposed anti-BJP front. Rahul Gandhi in the course of his campaign in Karnataka for the assembly elections made special mention that the opposition parties will unite and the NDA will be facing its worst in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Here’s a report, for Different Truths.
West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee has made major moves in forming a front of anti-BJP parties during her stay in Delhi last month. She has floated the idea of fielding a single opposition candidate against the BJP in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls so that the anti-BJP votes are not divided. This is highly sensible though this strategy is very difficult to implement in some of the states where the Congress is fighting the strong regional parties and the Rahul Gandhi led Congress will automatically seek to improve the position of the Party by fighting the regional parties. But the core of Mamata ’s electoral strategy is correct since the strongest anti-BJP party in each state will be the driving force in building anti-BJP front and the strongest anti-BJP party will have to take the others with it so that the BJP’s seats can be brought down to the minimum.
Mamata had a meeting with the Congress leader Sonia Gandhi on March 28 and it appears that Sonia was emphatic on the leading role of the Congress in this proposed anti-BJP front. Rahul Gandhi in the course of his campaign in Karnataka for the assembly elections made special mention that the opposition parties will unite and the NDA will be facing its worst in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. That way, all the anti-BJP political parties are convinced that if the major political parties, especially the Congress and the regional parties join hands, the BJP can be brought down from its present level of 282 Lok Sabha seats to less than 150 in the 2019 poll. For instance, in Uttar Pradesh, if the Samajwadi Party, BSP, and the Congress join hands, The BJP’s seats will come down to less than ten from the present figure of 71 out of the total of 80 seats.
The fact is that the BJP secured maximum number of seats-282 in 2014 Lok Sabha elections under a special circumstance when the opposition unity index was at the lowest level and the anti-incumbency was at peak form against the Congress due to scams and the inaction of the UPA administration during the last two years of the UPA 2 rule. The BJP got 31 percent of the votes in 2014 and the non-BJP votes totaled 69 percent. In the last four years, the BJP’s support base has declined and the Congress has certainly improved from its low ebb performance four years ago. That way even if the one to one formula is effective in 60 percent of the total 543 Lok Sabha seats, the BJP will face a big defeat. That way, taking into account that in some states, there will be the presence of the strong regional party and the Congress against the BJP, some last minute adjustments can be done between the anti-BJP parties to ensure that in marginal seats, the BJP’s defeat is ensured by an understanding between the Congress Party and the concerned regional party.
The one to one formula should have been experimented in Karnataka assembly elections by ensuring some sort of limited understanding between the Congress and the Janata Dal (S) of Mr. Deve Gowda in seats where the BJP has better chances to win as a result of the division of anti-BJP votes. It seems there is no possibility of any total understanding between the Congress and the JD(S) against the BJP taking into account the local rivalry between both parties, but there can be some last minutes efforts for a limited understanding even in 30 seats between the Congress and the JD(S) to prevent division of anti-BJP votes. Senior opposition leaders like Sharad Pawar and Mamata Banerjee can talk to both Rahul Gandhi and Deve Gowda to bring this understanding to ensure the sure defeat of BJP in the coming Karnataka elections on May 12.The defeat of BJP in Karnataka assembly poll is a must for boosting the morale of the opposition in the coming battle for the Lok Sabha elections and if necessary, Rahul Gandhi as the leader of the largest opposition party should take the lead in ensuring some limited understanding with the JD(S) against the BJP. If the Congress wins comfortably in Karnataka, that will act as a big booster for the grand old party in galvanizing its supporters into electoral battle in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh where the BJP is already in a downward journey.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP won 282 seats out of the total of 543 seats but in the last four years, state elections have been held in India’s 15 states out of the total of 29 and the results show that while in 2014, the BJP got 191 Lok Sabha seats from these 15 states, the assembly elections results aggregated to a tally of 146 seats for the BJP. This means a loss of 45 seats already in these 15 states. In the next round of assembly elections in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh as also Karnataka, this loss of Lok Sabha seats will be further increased. The BJP got maximum possible seats in Lok Sabha elections in 2014 in these four states and now the seats can only go down. It is noteworthy that the BJP got 39 percent vote share in these 15 states in 2014 Lok Sabha elections and now in the wake of the assembly elections in those 15 states, the BJP’s vote share has gone down to 29 percent – a substantial loss of ten percent.
Thus the more is the extent of opposition unity; more are the chances of defeating the BJP decisively. The Congress led by Rahul Gandhi and the regional opposition parties leaders have to work out that common minimum understanding that can ensure channelizing of anti-BJP votes to one candidate of the opposition,. If this is not possible, the next course is to ensure that the strongest opposition candidate gets the support of the other opposition parties. The resolve has to be there among the opposition parties that this is a do or die battle and only the defeat of BJP in 2019 poll can salvage the Indian nation and its core values.
Nitya Chakraborty
©IPA Service
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