With the preparations for Assembly elections in UP round-the-corner, Ratan Mani analyses where do various parties stand, their possible strategies and alliances. An exclusive for Different Truths.
The Assembly election in Uttar Pradesh is a high-stakes political game. Flaws in strategy and an adverse outcome can effectively set a political party back by a decade or more. Ask those in the Congress or the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) about it: these two parties have not been able to come back to power after 32 years and 9 years, respectively.
For the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) the wait lasted for 15 years, while for the Samajwadi party (SP), it was 5 years. That is why the BJP, which came to power in 2017, is leaving nothing to chance to retain it, and the Samajwadi Party (SP) is making an all-out effort to come back.
The jumbo sized UP Assembly having 403 seats gives the impression that it might have some seats that are up for grabs.
The jumbo sized UP Assembly having 403 seats gives the impression that it might have some seats that are up for grabs. This encourages smaller parties, caste-based outfits, parties from other states and solo-action parties to try their luck.
Combine all this with a two-term run of the BJP at the Centre under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and a high-optics tenure in UP under Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath: and a script for a colourful, loud, abrasive, everything-for-everyone campaign is gaining shape in the state.
The tenure of Uttar Pradesh Legislative Assembly is scheduled to end on May 14, 2022. The previous Assembly elections were held in February-March 2017. Elections are expected to be held in February-March 2022, even though reports keep on erupting that these might be held in January or February. There is no basis for such an assumption, and ruling party leaders also deny any such pressure to hold the elections earlier than scheduled.
Congress: First Mover
But the events of Lakhimpur in October and the sudden activation of the Congress in its aftermath have prompted other parties to switch to election mode, regardless of when these are held. The Congress has maintained its first mover stance and formally announced that its election campaign has started with myriad yatras and pledges. The fact that the party is being led by none less than Priyanka Gandhi Vadra in an avatar that combines woman power, glamour, and aggression, has given an early edge to it.
… it is also seen as a case of too much-too soon, a situation that would necessitate a similar frenzy till February or March.
On the other hand, it is also seen as a case of too much-too soon, a situation that would necessitate a similar frenzy till February or March. With none other than Priyanka holding charge, this seems difficult. Rahul Gandhi has consciously been staying away from Priyanka’s path – except for some antics at Lucknow airport after the Lakhimpur incident. Sonia Gandhi may make an appearance in UP at some stage with limited impact. The next visible and audible leader is the state Congress president Ajay Kumar Singh Lallu, a bespectacled and aggressive leader who belongs to the OBC section of society, from Kushinagar, in eastern UP. He started as a students’ union leader in a local college and was known for his front-row participation in protests, demonstrations, dharna and gherao. He was first elected as a Congress MLA, in 2012, and then, in 2017.
Maintaining campaign intensity by raising relevant issues will require day-to-day directives which Priyanka might be able to provide only if she stays in Lucknow for longer stretches. Besides, a few more campaign faces will also be needed, or Priyanka’s appeal might spread too thin across UP. But for now, the average Congress worker is happy that the party is being noticed.
SP: Beyond Yadavs
The SP had run a majority government after Akhilesh Yadav was named the chief minister after its victory in 2012. That was a time when patriarch Mulayam Singh Yadav had a say in party affairs, brother Shivpal Yadav, cousin Ram Gopal Yadav, comrades Azam Khan, Ahmed Hasan and associate Raghuraj Pratap Singh ‘Raja Bhaiya’ were on the same side.
Akhilesh is the only big Yadav face in his party, and achievements of his 2012-2017 term as Chief Minister form the core of his election campaign.
Since then, there has been a split in the party, patriarch Mulayam is unwell and only in a position to give his blessings, lasting bitterness between family members, the big Muslim face is in jail, the old guard is sidelined, and cousin Shivpal and associate Raja Bhaiya have formed their own parties. Akhilesh is the only big Yadav face in his party, and achievements of his 2012-2017 term as Chief Minister form the core of his election campaign.
Consequently, he is putting forth non-Yadav party leaders as campaign faces to dilute the impression of SP being a Yadav-dominated party. State party president Naresh Uttam Patel, OBC leader Rajpal Kashyap and former minister Abhishek Mishra are being readied to play major roles in the statewide campaign. The party is also open to friendly association with both Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Trinamool Congress (TMC) to broadbase its reach. What Akhilesh has still not opened up to, is an alliance with his estranged Chacha Shivpal, whereas the latter has made countless overtures to Akhilesh for a handshake.
… a chance encounter with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra aboard an aircraft to Lucknow led to exchange of smiles, some words, and a host of speculation…
SP’s alliances with Congress, in 2017, (Assembly election) and with BSP, in 2019, (Lok Sabha election) were a bitter experience for Akhilesh and now he is finalising alliances with very small outfits such as Aadim Samaj Party, Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party. Significantly, a chance encounter with Priyanka Gandhi Vadra aboard an aircraft to Lucknow led to exchange of smiles, some words, and a host of speculation over a limited-edition political handshake.
BJP: Fire Power
BJP last held power between 1997 and 2002, and the party’s victory in 2017, followed by Yogi Adityanath taking over as Chief Minister was nothing short of a political upheaval. It was the first time that the BJP had gained such a huge majority and formed a government without support. Yogi as a firebrand Hindu leader had a rustic appeal which has helped consolidate the community’s support since then. The party has a line-up of leaders at the state and national level, unmatched resources, managerial skills and a deep thinktank in the RSS.
The possible loss in the party’s support base in the western districts because of the prolonged and messy farmers’ stir is sought to be compensated by a great push in the east.
The possible loss in the party’s support base in the western districts because of the prolonged and messy farmers’ stir is sought to be compensated by a great push in the east. Modi has made many visits to the east and more are in the offing. Apna Dal and Nishad Party are the two allies so far.
Besides farmers’ agitation, the damage caused by Covid-19 fallout, stray cattle menace, rising prices and other governance issues may cost some to the BJP. But as typical of the party, it is likely to unleash its campaign with heavy star and fire power in the next few weeks, when a fair assessment of its performance can be made.
BSP: Fading Away
Former Chief Minister Mayawati has lost almost all her party’s old guard, new guard and second line. Most have gone to the SP, indicating that the traditional dislike with that party has died down. Her close confidante Satish Chandra Mishra has moved from being the Rajya Sabha face and legal counsellor to a more visibly political role. Mayawati loyalists are finding it unpalatable.
It is an unpleasant reality check for those who, some years ago, had predicted Mayawati to be India’s next big hope…
In any case, her conciliatory statements, and a tendency to attack the Congress and SP rather than the BJP are indications that the party may be ready for a diminished presence. It is an unpleasant reality check for those who, some years ago, had predicted Mayawati to be India’s next big hope, a game changer, harbinger of a social revolution and much more.
Others:
AAP and TMC are among the parties having increased their visibility in UP. AAP’s Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Singh has been vocal in raising issues, making allegations of corruption, and organising protests. The party intends to fight a sizable number of seats. So is the case with TMC, which has been doing the same. The Shiv Sena also said a month ago it would contest 100 seats. The Janata Dal (United) and Rashtriya Janata Dal, both from Bihar, may back BJP and SP, respectively.
Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Rakesh Tikait’s Sanyukta Kisan Morcha (SKM), Chandra Shekhar Azad’s Azad Samaj Party, Shivpal Yadav’s PSP-L are among the parties which are still looking for tangible alliances. Things could be in the pipeline, though. Keep watching this space.
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