Here is Ratan Mani’s in-depth political analysis as election pitch builds up for the 2022 Assembly Election in Uttar Pradesh. We are introducing a fortnightly column, beginning this week, exclusively for Different Truths.

Uttar Pradesh offers something to journalists around the world. The Kumbh at Prayagraj, the caste conflicts, Hindu-Muslim tension, the Ram temple in Ayodhya, the global investor summits, the proximity to national capital, the upcoming international airport – the list of subjects is longer than these mentioned here. Now, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, the strength of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the state and the scheduled election to the UP Assembly in about ten months, are drawing attention of the media and political observers alike and afresh.

The runaway success story of the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi started with UP in 2014 when the party won 71 out of the 80 Lok Sabha seats. The victory march continued in the 2017 Assembly election with the BJP winning 312 out of 403 Assembly seats. It was a record for the party, and the winning run continued in the 2019 Lok Sabha election with the BJP tally at 62. 

There has been a change in political alignments in the state since then. The main opposition party, Samajwadi Party (SP) led by former and one-term Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, had contested the 2017 Assembly election in alliance with the Congress. The combination of Akhilesh and Rahul Gandhi had been highly publicised as the coming together of two “youth” leaders to bring about a change. Yadav had also banked upon the goodwill generated by the completion of the Agra expressway and Lucknow Metro train service. But the alliance failed badly at the hustings.

Akhilesh Yadav later said that the Samajwadi Party-Congress alliance lost in the 2017 because of “incorrect arithmetic.” As a corrective measure, he opted to join hands with the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) for the 2019 Lok Sabha elections. This gambit, too, failed as the BSP took its tally from 0 in 2014 to 15 in 2019, whereas the SP remained at 5 in both cases.

Alliances Unlikely

As of today, the SP, BSP and the Congress are not in alliance talks with each other. Several new players are in the fray such as Jayant Chaudhary’s Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Asaduddin Owaisi’s AIMIM, Shivpal Yadav’s PSP-L, OP Rajbhar’s SBSP and possibly Rakesh Tikait’s Sanyukta Kisan Morcha SKM).

So, where does that leave the BJP?

A lot has changed in the state – and indeed the entire world – since 2020. The deadly Covid-19 pandemic has exposed the realities of governance, healthcare infrastructure, administrative incapability and lack of sensitivity among the ruling class. The combined impact of these and the personal loss of near and dear ones in countless families is bound to show in the political system as well. It is also true that large sections of the masses accept the pandemic as “God’s will” over which no one has any control, and therefore they would be unwilling to blame anyone for the tragedies suffered by them. But the relentless stories about lack of hospital beds, medicines, oxygen, doctors, staff, painful waiting at cremation and burial grounds have left a lasting impact on people’s minds and these just mind come back when people are casting their vote.

Also, the SP is likely to emerge as the main challenger party by default, since the BSP and the Congress have not able to put their act together. The party structure in both cases is weak, leader-less and lacks the ability for ground campaign. Besides, Akhilesh Yadav brings with him the legacy of his father Mulayam Singh Yadav and also his experience of working as Chief Minister for five years. The other smaller parties are likely to gravitate towards any of the bigger parties or go it alone, spoiling the game of one or the other.

So, this is what may fashion the strategy of political parties for the 2022 Assembly election.

Covid Handling

While the anti-BJP parties will rake up the tragic visuals, painful stories, tales of apathy, shortage, extortion, black-marketing of medicines and delayed response, the BJP will try to be first mover with stories of quick fall of the Covid cases curve, delayed but effective arrangement of oxygen, creation of hospital beds, vaccination, and the rapid-fire visits of Yogi Adityanath to all districts of the state to take stock of Covid preparedness.

While the opposition will obviously attempt to put all the blame on the Chief Minister, it may actually end up benefiting the Chief Minister since public memory – short as it is – recalls what happened later (or after a tragedy), rather than during the tragedy.

Polarisation

The BJP is likely to continue with itsstand that it does not believe and has notbelieved in so-called “appeasement” and that its policies are the same for all classes and communities. On the other hand, the opposition parties are likely to press ahead with charges that the Yogi government is more interested in the interests of the majority community.

The background of the Chief Minister as a firebrand Hindu Yuva Vahini leader, and his speeches during election campaigns in many states indicate that he is aggressive when it comes to the majority community’s interests. The opposition is likely to continue to brand him as anti-minorities.

Caste Preference

Of late, allegations of a particular upper caste group dominating the administration have been doing rounds in powers of corridor in Lucknow. It is akin to similar allegations heaped on the Samajwadi party government headed by Akhilesh Yadav (2012-2017). This charge is likely to be part of the opposition ammo. However, the allegations in the SP regime had even led to inquiries by government agencies, whereas the allegations against the Yogi governments have not reached such serious proportions.

Development Agenda

The SP has been constantly alleging that the Yogi government has done little on state’s development front but is taking credit for projects launched by the SP regime. This is an oft-repeated charge and has been a favourite tool of political parties since the Nehru era. While the SP will make it a campaign plank, the BJP is likely to counter it with a list of infrastructure projects launched in the last two-three years.

Despite there being many faces in the Yogi ministry, the Chief Minister is the prime mover. Even the two deputy CMs Keshav Maurya and Dinesh Sharma have been unable to leave a mark. The recent confabulations in the BJP in Delhi and Lucknow indicate that some corrective measures including a minor reshuffle could be on the way. A restructuring in the state unit of BJP may also be done.

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Ratan Mani Lal

Ratan Mani Lal is a journalist with more than 40 years’ experience in major English and Hindi newspapers such as The Times of India, Hindustan Times and The Bhaskar Group. He headed the Jaipuria Institute Mass Communication for several years. He writes for Firstpost, One India.com, Zeenews.com and other publications in English and Hindi. A celebrated commentator for several television channels, he writes on current affairs with a focus on political scenario, development issues, and environment. He is our Editorial Advisor and National Editor: Politics, Development Issues and Environment

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