Moral Victory for Congress: Its Supporters and Seats Increased Steadily in Gujarat
BJP won the 2017 Assembly Polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. However, Modi’s party has registered a steady decline in the vote share in his home state. In the Assembly election of 2002, BJP won 70% of the seats, while in 2007 it had 64% of the seats, in 2012 it reduced to 63% while in 2017 it is only 55%. This election has, thus, been a victory for the Congress in that it raised its number of supporters in the state. While in 2002, the Congress won 51 seats out of 182 (28%), in 2007 it increased to 59 (32%), in 2012 the number was 61 (33.5%) and this year it is 79 (43%). Here’s a political analysis by our Associate Editor, Navodita, exclusively in Different Truths.
As counting began Monday morning, both the party leaders were nervous to know the people’s verdict of their performances in the recently held elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh. While the incumbent Congress was at least hopeful of retaining its place in the hill state of Himachal, it hoped to do well in the state of Gujarat as well. However, the verdict signals otherwise. Congress needs to work hard ahead of the elections in 2019 as it has lost two more states in north and west this time.
The BJP looks set to form the new government for the sixth straight time in Modi’s home state as it won 100 out of 182 seats, while INC won 79 and others won 3 seats which include the likes of Jignesh Mewani from Vadgam and Alpesh Thakore from Radhanpur (source: Election Commission of India). It seems the exit polls were proven right. While the Times Now VMR exit poll gave 115 seats to the BJP and 65 to the Congress, the Republic-C Voter exit poll and the News 18-C voter exit poll gave 108 seats to the BJP and 74 to the Congress. News 24-Today’s Chanakya predicted 135 seats for the BJP and 47 for the Congress. Exit polls for Gujarat showed an outcome almost in line with the opinion polls that came earlier this month. The opinion polls had indicated a sharp upswing in Congress’ fortunes saw in the state since August this year, which later got wrested as its campaign reached its last stages.
Immediately after victory in both states, Prime Minister Narendra Modi tweeted, “Election results in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh indicate a strong support for politics of good governance and development. I salute the hardworking BJP Karyakartas (cadres) in these states for their hard work which has led to these impressive victories.”
At the same time, Office of RG seemed to take defeat with a sporting spirit tweeting, “My Congress brothers and sisters, you have made me very proud. You are different from those you fought because you fought anger with dignity. You have demonstrated to everyone that the Congress’ greatest strength is its decency and courage.”
The Congress party’s performance in Himachal Pradesh took a hit, while it has been better in Gujarat than the earlier years.
As seen in this table, there has been a steady decline in the total number of seats being won by the BJP since 2002. In the Assembly election of 2002, BJP won 70% of the seats while in 2007 it had 64% of the seats, in 2012 it reduced to 63% while in 2017 it is only 55%. This election has thus been a victory for the Congress in that it raised its number of supporters in the state. While in 2002, the Congress won 51 seats out of 182 (28%), in 2007 it increased to 59 (32%), in 2012 the number was 61 (33.5%) and this year it is 79 (43%).
In Himachal Pradesh, however, it has truly been a setback for the Congress as the BJP won 44 seats while the Congress could retain only 21 in this 68-member Assembly. In Arki, Virabhadra Singh got 34, 499 votes while Rattan Singh Pal of the BJP got only 28, 448 votes.
BJP’s chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal, told the media after his defeat, “Personal loss is not of much importance. The gain that victory has brought to state BJP is important. Thankful to the people of the state for voting for BJP. In politics, sometimes one wins, sometimes one loses. I was not expecting to lose. I will do an analysis.”
The current victory puts BJP at the helm of NDA coalition in 19 of 27 states. It seems the Congress central leadership was working hard to gain ground in the state of Gujarat and was either overconfident or just didn’t seem to care much about the hill state of Himachal Pradesh, where the Congress president Rahul Gandhi spent little time campaigning. Moreover, Gujarat is also the home turf of the prime minister, so it was considered crucial ahead of the general election of 2019. The big question was whether the Patidar Andolan played in favour of the Congress or not. Ironically, in Mahesana, the seat where the Patel agitation began under Hardik Patel, has been won by BJP’s Patel Nitinbhai Ratilal who defeated Congress’ Patel Jivabhai Ambalal. The election campaign throughout was not so much about Hindutva, despite Rahul’s ‘temple yatras’ as it was about caste for the Congress. Although ticket distribution by both parties was done based on caste, Modi factor did dominate the elections.
The message is loud and clear – while the Congress was playing the caste factor and the policy of appeasement, the BJP projected its ‘vikas’ image under the dynamic leadership of Modi. Then, is ‘Modi Magic’ here to stay? Is Rahul’s Congress in for a daunting task ahead?
©Navodita Pande
Photos from the Internet
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