Though the tenure of the present state government is scheduled to end by mid-May next year, UP Assembly elections are likely to be announced in next eight weeks. Ratan Mani gives us an in-depth analysis from Lucknow. An exclusive for Different Truths.
Unofficially, the countdown has begun. Although the tenure of the Uttar Pradesh Assembly is scheduled to end on May 14, 2022, the pace at which politics is being played about the state and in the state, it appears that the imposition of the famed code of conduct – coming into effect the day election dates are announced – could happen within eight weeks.
Officials are being transferred on an almost daily basis. Announcements of incentives, assistance, freebies, etc are being made regularly. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is visiting UP very frequently, sometimes thrice or four times a month. Completed and about-to-be complete projects are being inaugurated. Political parties are holding closed-door meetings. Leaders (of parties other than Bharatiya Janata Party) with serious faces are holding press conferences and appearing on television to make dire predictions about the fate of democracy in the country.
The BJP, all this while, is unfolding itself like a huge rumbling Transformers like machine.
The BJP, all this while, is unfolding itself like a huge rumbling Transformers like machine. It first appeared to have been left behind when the Congress, Samajwadi Party, Bahujan Samaj Party, Aam Aadmi Party and other smaller outfits had started flexing muscles to be first off the ground. Now, when these aforementioned parties have completed Round One of their pre-election activities and face the prospect of spreading themselves too thin till the actual campaigning, the BJP is slowly revealing its poll arsenal.
MY: The New Election Ammo
Modi and Yogi are the new MY combo which the other parties are going to find hard to beat. While Prime Minister Modi is obviously the biggest and the most effective component of the BJP’s strategy and this obviously did not reveal too much either. He has been visiting UP every few days – Azadi Ka Amrit Utsav and urban conclave in Lucknow on October 5, inauguration of Kushinagar airport on October 20, inauguration of nine medical colleges in Uttar Pradesh and National Health Infrastructure Scheme on October 25.
In November, he is expected to be in the state at least four times in Sultanpur, Jhansi, Lucknow, and Greater Noida. On November 16, he will inaugurate the Purvanchal Expressway at a 3-km long airstrip built on the road in Sultanpur. On November 25, he will lay the foundation stone of the Noida International Airport, in Greater Noida. On November 19, he is likely to visit Jhansi as part of the ‘Azadi Ka Amrit Mahotsav’ and hold a public meeting near the Rani Laxmi Bai monument. He will visit Lucknow on November 21 to address the all-India annual conference of DGPs/IGPs.
At the recently-concluded BJP executive meeting, Yogi was given a big responsibility…
As for Chief minister Yogi Adityanath, he has already emerged on the party’s scheme of things. At the recently-concluded BJP executive meeting, Yogi was given a big responsibility – presenting the party’s political resolution at the gathering of party bigwigs. He also happened to be the only chief minister from amongst all BJP-ruled states to be given this role.
Different Strokes
Akhilesh Yadav has started portraying himself as the obvious choice of everyone who is looking for a change in the state. Huge billboards in Lucknow came up recently portraying a silhouette of Akhilesh with a crowd in front, and a bold announcement: Main aa raha hoon…” (meaning, “I am coming.”) There is a timer on some of the hoardings, indicating the number of days to March 15, 2022. The idea is to tell the people that his taking over as the next Chief Minister is a foregone conclusion.
His party has been frantically welcoming legislators, present and past, office bearers and other leaders from Congress, BJP and mostly from BSP into its fold.
His party has been frantically welcoming legislators, present and past, office bearers and other leaders from Congress, BJP and mostly from BSP into its fold. The SP leaders have also started discussing in closed groups how this time their running of the government will be different from last time.
At the same time the party is finalising election deals with parties like Rashtriya Lok Dal (Jayant Choudhary), Pragatisheel Samajwadi Party-Lohia (Shivpal Yadav), Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party (Om Prakash Rajbhar), while deals with Mukhtar Ansari, AAP and TMC (for whatever it is worth) may be in the offing.
Priyanka Gandhi Vadra from the Congress, as expected, might be the only star campaigner in days ahead. She has already been amidst a lot of people in many districts and obviously she must be revisiting her strategy for the heated campaign ahead. Temple visits and attacks on the centre and state governments aside, something new is expected from her.
Headache Ahead
The real headache for all parties is going to be the announcement of the candidate list. Applicants are in thousands whereas the seats are only 403. There are bound to be hundreds if not thousands of disappointed aspirants. They will complain about factors such as the role of money, nepotism, parochialism, sycophancy, love for turncoats and ego intrigues as being at play in deciding names. There will be violent and noisy shows of protest, throwing of chairs and shouting of slogans.
Parties seem to be ready for all this, and probably much more, such as spot desertions and defectors being given tickets by other parties.
Campaign responsibility is going to be another sore point with all parties.
Campaign responsibility is going to be another sore point with all parties. Those being ignored or not being given enough campaign opportunities will complain. Stand-off between “true” and “fake” loyalists will also surface frequently. Allegations about misuse of government machinery will fly.
The coming winter months are surely going to be full of action. No one will miss any bit of it – even if one wants to.
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A good article about the likely election scenario in UP. However, politics is an extremely dicey game. Nobody really can really predict what happens in the D Day. For the moment though, the MY combination seems to be very formidable, given the pelf, power, the pliant mainstream media and the central agencies ready to play the role of the midwife to deliver the required baby for this combo.
But still, nobody can ever dismiss the collective will of the electorate.